Climate change projections and impacts on raw water quality in the Paraíba do Sul River basin, Southeast Brazil

Authors

  • Diovana de Moura Rahmani Master’s degree in Aerospace Engineering, PhD student in Earth System Science, National Institute for Space Research (Inpe), São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil
  • Luiz Fernando Satolo PhD in Earth System Science, Researcher, National Institute for Space Research (Inpe), Brazil, National Institute for Space Research (Inpe), São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5586-6424
  • Erica Acioli Canamary PhD in Earth System Science, Researcher, National Institute for Space Research (Inpe), São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil.
  • Javier Tomasella PhD in Hydrology, Professor, National Institute for Space Research (Inpe), Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2597-8833

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18472/SustDeb.v17n1.2026.58433

Keywords:

Regional climate models, Future scenarios, Water resources, Water security

Abstract

This study aims to assess recent trends in water quality indicators in the Paraíba do Sul River Basin in the state of São Paulo and to analyse the influence of climate change on these parameters. A comparative analysis between future projections and a historical reference scenario reveals that climate variability plays a significant role in water quality. Additionally, the findings indicate a decline in water availability, particularly under high emission scenarios, underscoring the urgency of mitigation and adaptation measures to ensure water security in the region.

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Author Biographies

Diovana de Moura Rahmani, Master’s degree in Aerospace Engineering, PhD student in Earth System Science, National Institute for Space Research (Inpe), São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil

Holds a PhD in Earth System Science, with emphasis on Hydrology (2026), with expertise in integrated modeling of environmental systems, climate change, and their impacts on water quality and operational efficiency of treatment systems. Holds an MBA in Project Management (2026) from the USP/ESALQ. She earned a Master’s degree in Aerospace Engineering (2012) from the Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica and Moscow Aviation Institute, with emphasis on structural analysis andcomputational modeling using finite element methods. She holds a Bachelor’s degree in Mechanical Engineering with emphasis on Energy (2008) from the Universidade Estadual Paulista. She works in the field of Sanitation Engineering, with experience in project design, planning, construction, and operation of water supply and wastewater systems. Herresearch focuses on hydrological modeling, climate projections, and machine learning applied to waterquality, chemical consumption, and operational and financial impacts (OPEX) in treatment systems.

 

Luiz Fernando Satolo, PhD in Earth System Science, Researcher, National Institute for Space Research (Inpe), Brazil, National Institute for Space Research (Inpe), São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil

Ph.D. in Sciences from the University of São Paulo (USP, 2012), with a concentration in Applied Economics.Completed a postdoctoral fellowship funded by FAPESP at USP (2014). Specialist in Data Science (2017), Data Analysis (2020), and Big Data (2020). Between 2007 and 2012, worked as a statistician, economic-financial analyst, and intelligence analyst in various companies within the sugar-energy sector. Served as a substitute professor at the Federal Institute of Education, Science, and Technology (IFSP) between 2015 and 2016, and at USP between 2016 and 2018. Worked as an online statistics tutor from 2020 to 2022. Held a position as a data scientist at an agribusiness startup through a FAPESP Technical Training Fellowship from 2020 to 2023.Currently pursuing a Master's degree in Applied Computing at the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), with a concentration in Geospatial Data Science.Research interests include data science, statistical learning, machine learning, predictive modeling, artificial intelligence, and big data. Holds a Bachelor's degree in Economics from the University of São Paulo (USP, 2005) and a Master's degree in Sciences from USP (2008). CNPq Industrial Technological Development Fellow in the iFAST Project – Intelligent Flood Alert Surveillance Tools at the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN) from 2024 to 2025.

Erica Acioli Canamary , PhD in Earth System Science, Researcher, National Institute for Space Research (Inpe), São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil.

Ph.D. in Earth System Science from the National Institute for Space Research (INPE). Holds a Master's degree in Environmental Technology and Water Resources from the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Brasília (2015), and a Bachelor's degree in Civil Engineering from the Federal University of Ceará (2009). Has experience in the implementation of drainage and paving projects under the Urban Drainage Program of Fortaleza (DRENURB). Has taught university-level courses in hydrology, hydraulics, fluid mechanics, and sanitation. Worked in the development and operation of the urban stormwater drainage management sector within the scope of the National Sanitation Information System (SNIS) and contributed to the revision of the National Basic Sanitation Plan (PLANSAB) in 2019. During her doctoral research at the Earth System Science Graduate Program at INPE, she analyzed the future impacts on water, energy, and food security in the Paraíba do Sul River Basin associated with climate change, land use change, and resource use, applying the Nexus approach and the Distributed Hydrological Model developed by INPE (MHD-INPE).

Javier Tomasella, PhD in Hydrology, Professor, National Institute for Space Research (Inpe), Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil

Holds a Bachelor's degree in Water Resources Engineering from the National University of the Litoral (1988), a Master’s (1992) and Ph.D. (1995) in Civil Engineering from the Institute of Hydraulic Research (IPH). Currently serves as a Senior Technologist at the National Institute for Space Research (INPE). His research focuses on hydrological modeling, impacts of land use and climate change on water resources, detection and modeling of hydrological extremes, land degradation and desertification, and multidisciplinary studies on water resources, particularly in the context of water use conflicts. He is the first alternate member of the National Water Resources Council, representing the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI), and a full member of the Scientific Advisory Chamber of the Interministerial Committee on Climate Change (CAC-CIM).

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Published

2026-04-30

How to Cite

Rahmani, D. de M., Satolo, L. F., Canamary , E. A., & Tomasella, J. (2026). Climate change projections and impacts on raw water quality in the Paraíba do Sul River basin, Southeast Brazil. Sustainability in Debate, 17(1), 74–121. https://doi.org/10.18472/SustDeb.v17n1.2026.58433

Issue

Vol. 17 No. 1 (2026): Sustainability in Debate

Section

Articles - Varia

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