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Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Brazil: an integrated approach

2020-12-16T19:32:55-03:00

Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Brazil: an integrated approach

The Nexus+ approach applied to studies of Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Brazil

2020-10-29T22:50:13-03:00

This paper aims to present the methodology developed within the Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation (IVA) to climate change component of the Fourth National Communication (4CN) of Brazil. The methodological choice of this 4CN involves the application of the nexus+ integrated approach, based on studies of impacts and vulnerabilities for water, energy, food and socio-environmental securities, in the different in the territories of Brazilian biomes, coastal areas and cities. For each of these securities it were identified the observed impacts; analysis of risk conditions; definition and assessments of integrated analysis of key impacts at territorial level; inventory, selection and analysis of adaption options in the context of Nexus+, identifying synergies and trade-offs. This process made possible an integrated assessment among the conditioning risk factors, impacts and interactions among proposed adaptation options.

Future rainfall and temperature changes in Brazil under global warming levels of 1.5ºC, 2ºC and 4ºC

2020-10-19T08:58:53-03:00

The present study analyzes the impacts of global warming of 1.5ºC, 2ºC, and 4ºC above pre-industrial levels in the Brazilian territory. Climate change projected among the different global warming levels has been analyzed for rainfall, temperature and extreme climate indices. The projections are derived from the global climate model HadGEM3-A, from the High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes (HELIX) international project, from the United Kingdom, forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration of a subset of six CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) global climate models and considering the RCP 8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) emissions scenario throughout the 21st century. Projections indicate robust differences in regional climate characteristics. These differences include changes: in the minimum and maximum air temperature close to the surface to all the country’s regions, in extremes of heat, particularly in northern Brazil, in the occurrence of heavy rainfall (Southern and Southeastern regions), and in the probability of droughts and rain deficits in some regions (Northern and Northeastern Brazil).

Adaptation opportunities for water security in Brazil

2020-10-28T13:28:12-03:00

We sought to identify priorities and adaptation opportunities for water security across the various Brazilian biomes. With ever-growing demand and water-usage, future climate scenarios suggest that further water resources management constraints are to be endured throughout the next two decades. The unbalance between high-quality water demand and availability in a multisectoral usage context (e.g., domestic, industry, agribusiness) highlights the socio-ecological Nexus+ concept's relevance. In this context, the political and cross-institutional articulation and flexibility play a significant role in steering adaptative actions. These challenges in defining action plans, adequately addressed at a multiscale level with inherent climatic uncertainties, are yet to be overcome in Brazilian water resources management.

Implications of climate change impacts for the Brazilian electricity mix

2020-09-24T15:15:24-03:00

Hydropower generation is responsible for supplying most of the electricity in Brazil. Like other renewable sources, water is highly sensitive to meteorological variables, so that climate change may have a considerable impact on it. Therefore, this study aims at assessing climate change impacts on hydropower generation and their consequences for the Brazilian electricity system. Scenario data for specific average global warming levels of 2°C and 4°C from Eta_HadGEM2-ES and Eta_MIROC5 downscaled climate models are used. Outcomes indicate that the electricity system’s adaptive capacity to lower hydropower generation includes a growing share of other renewable and natural gas fired thermoelectric generation, increasing the system’s marginal cost to meet projected demand in 2030. Greenhouse gas emissions are projected to increase in a 2°C scenario, but to decrease in scenarios in which warming reaches 4°C.

Climate impacts in the Brazilian energy security: analysis of observed events and adaptation options

2020-11-16T11:53:28-03:00

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, which can affect energy systems. Thus, this study aims to evaluate impacts of meteorological events on the Brazilian energy system, through an analysis of recent reports. Cases of impacts on hydropower, power transmission and distribution, bioenergy crops and residential cooling demand in recent years are assessed. Finally, the challenges of energy planning in the face of climate change are analyzed and adaptation measures for the energy system are proposed, pointing out possible repercussions on water, food, socio-environmental and climate security.

Impacts of extreme climate events on Brazilian agricultural production

2020-11-03T14:42:14-03:00

Brazilian agricultural production stands out in world food security, accounting for a large part of the food produced worldwide. However, occurrence of extreme climate events is a challenge for the sector across the country. Thus, this study aims to assess extreme climate events impacts on Brazilian agricultural production. The loss index was calculated using crop data made available by the IBGE from 2005 to 2017, while data on the occurrence of extreme climate events (2002-2017) was obtained from literature. Data related to PROAGRO (2010-2018) and the Crop Assurance Program (2002-2016) were obtained from reports made available by the relevant agencies. Results showed high drought-induced production losses, mainly maize and beans produced in the Caatinga biome, and soybean and wheat in the Southeastern and Southern regions of the country. Hail and frost events also caused reductions in soybean and rice production in the Southeastern and Southern regions. Those impacts on the Brazilian agricultural production, in different regions, might have serious consequences on the availability and access of food to the population in the country.

Projections of Brazilian biomes resilience and socio-environmental risks to climate change

2020-09-09T09:48:37-03:00

Climate change has been considered, at a global level, as one of the main anthropogenic drivers of environmental transformation, especially on biomes, ecosystems and the most vulnerable population. In this regard, the concept of resilience has been widely used in ecology to explain the ecosystem transition thresholds by which forests and other habitats are able to restructure in the face of various external disturbances. However, the concept of resilience in facing climate change impacts and risks through the lens of socio-environmental risks in Brazil is still underdeveloped, especially at the biome level. This article uses the theory of critical transitions to ecological niche distribution modeling in future global warming scenarios by the end of the century, in order to highlight the change in ecological resilience of the Amazon, Caatinga, Cerrado, Atlantic Forest and Pampa biomes, and how the changes in resilience can lead to an increased exposure, vulnerabilities and risks to socio-environmental security. This article shows how an interdisciplinary approach bringing together modeling of biome resilience may be a tool to support decision making and public policies on mitigation and adaptation to climate change and reduce risks to socio-environmental security.

Climate change and disasters: analysis of the Brazilian regional inequality

2020-10-27T14:59:22-03:00

One of the main consequences of climate change in Brazil is the increase in the occurrence of extreme rainfall, which in turn trigger Hydrometeorological disasters; the Brazilian continental dimension, the regional characteristics of biomes and socioeconomic inequality are conditioning factors for the impacts of extreme events in the country. This work analyzes Brazil’s socioeconomic and urban infrastructure vulnerability, combined with the regional exposure of the population, based on disasters observed and future scenarios for the occurrence of rainfall extremes. As a result, it points out that climate change impact differently on large Brazilian regions, due to population density and the poor quality of urban infrastructure services.

Impacts of heat stress conditions on mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases in Brazil

2020-10-13T15:49:31-03:00

This study assesses the risk of exposure to heat stress conditions and their potential impact on mortality from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in Brazilian capital cities for warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C and 4.0 °C in the RCP8.5 scenario. The risk of exposure and the impact of heat stress conditions on mortality were measured by the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index. The impact on health was estimated by applying exposure-response curves between WBGT and health outcomes in the projections. The potential impact on mortality was measured by attributable fraction of mortality due to heat stress. The results showed an increase in heat stress conditions for Brazil, especially in the Northern and Center-Western regions. The estimated curves showed an association between the WBGT and mortality by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in Brazil, with an upward impact trend, according to the levels of warming and heterogeneous results among the capitals.

Impact of global warming on Potential Years of Life Lost by cardiopulmonary diseases in Brazilian capital cities

2020-10-29T22:22:00-03:00

This study aims at assessing the future impact of global warming in the Potencial Years of Life Lost (YLL) for cardiovascular diseases in adults (≥45 years) and respiratory diseases in the elderly (≥60 years). This is an ecological study, which includes all the capitals of Brazil. Future projections used temperature data sourced from the Eta-HadGEM2S Regional Model for the RCP8.5 scenario. YLL fractions attributable to temperature were estimated for global warming scenarios of 1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 4.0°C. The results showed that, in absolute numbers, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo have presented the largest YLL contribution attributable to global warming among the capital cities. Campo Grande and Cuiabá were the most impacted capitals by a global warming of 1.5ºC compared to the baseline period (1961-2005), both for respiratory diseases in the elderly and for cardiovascular diseases in adults. Results of this research suggest that the impact of exposure to temperature on YLL tends to increase as the level of global warming increases.

Vector-borne diseases in Brazil: climate change and future warming scenarios

2020-11-04T15:45:58-03:00

Climate change affects human health either directly or indirectly, and related impacts are complex, non-linear, and depend on several variables. The various climate change impacts on health include a change in the spatial distribution of vector-borne diseases. In this regard, this study presents and discusses changes in the spatial distribution of climate suitability for visceral leishmaniasis, yellow fever and malaria in Brazil, in different global warming scenarios. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) was used to construct climate suitability models in warming scenarios. Models were based in climate variables generated by the Eta-HadGEM2 ES regional model, in the baseline period 1965-2005 and RCP8.5 scenario, representing global warming levels of 1,5ºC (2011-2040), 2,0ºC (2041-2070) and 4,0ºC (2071-2099). The three diseases studied are largely influenced by climate and showed different distribution patterns within the country. In global warming scenarios, visceral leishmaniasis found more favorable climate conditions in the Southeastern and Southern regions of Brazil, while climate in the Northern and Center-West regions gradually became more favorable to yellow fever. In malaria scenarios, an increase in favorable climate conditions to its high incidence was observed in the Atlantic Forest, where currently extra-Amazonian cases occur. The scenarios presented herein represent different possible consequences for the health sector in terms of adopting (or not) different measures to mitigate climate change in Brazil, such as reducing the emission of greenhouse gases.

Climate change and Brazil’s coastal zone: socio-environmental vulnerabilities and action strategies

2020-11-04T16:06:35-03:00

The coastal zone, where most of the Brazilian population lives, plays a central role for discussing vulnerability and adaptation strategies to climate change. Besides saltmarshes, mangroves and coral reefs, this region also presents seagrass beds, macroalgae and rhodolith beds, forming underwater forests, which are key habitats for services such as biodiversity conservation, O₂ production, and absorption of part of the CO₂ from the atmosphere. Science endorses that ocean warming and acidification, sea level rise, biological invasions and their interactions with pollution, overfishing, and other stressors undermine the structure and functioning of these ecosystems, thus increasing the region's socio-environmental vulnerability. Ecosystem conservation, management and potential bioremediation/restoration using science-based solutions must be prioritized in order to reduce the vulnerability of coastal communities and the ocean.

Table of Contents / Sumário

2020-12-22T10:52:30-03:00

Table of Contents / Sumário

Environmental impacts and infrastructure in Agrarian Reform settlements in Minas Gerais, Brazil

2020-10-27T20:20:33-03:00

The existence of adequate infrastructure aims to meet the basic human needs, contributing to local development, poverty reduction and social inequalities. The aim of this article is to analyze the potential environmental impacts arising from infrastructure conditions in agrarian reform settlements in the State of Minas Gerais - Brazil. The methodology is based on the Leopold Matrix, which considers the environmental components: water pollution, soil degradation, land use and quality of life, in a sample of 1,270 lots. The variables analyzed were: water supply; sanitation; disposal of wastewater, dry waste, pesticide packaging and veterinary medicinal products; distribution of electricity and paving of public roads. The results indicate that the impacts are of greater negative potential in the Northern Mesoregion of Minas Gerais (70%), followed by Triângulo Mineiro/Alto Paranaíba (60%), proving the hypothesis that the incipience in infrastructure conditions results in a greater negative environmental impact.

Methodological proposal to analyze land use and land cover changes: the case of Santa Catarina state in Brazil from 2000 to 2010

2020-10-28T13:31:49-03:00

The objective of this paper is to verify the land use and land cover change and to relate them with the potential driving forces that have been acting in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil, during the period from 2000 to 2010. The methodology consists in identifying trends in the land use and land cover change; indicating possible explanatory factors based in factorial analysis for main components and elaborating a final typology, based on cluster analysis. Results include a strong expansion and growing strength of agricultural activity as well as forestry throughout the state and the loss of native vegetation, which points to the need to develop protective actions and occupation and land use regulations, in particular, in the environmental area, encompassing the development of an intensive and mechanized agricultural activity.

Good for whom? Dendeiculture reactions by contract in Amazon paraense

2020-10-27T19:57:17-03:00

This article analyzes the acceptance or resistance of contract oil palm cultivation in Irituia. Research was based on an analysis of documents and secondary data sources, and included 30 interviews with oil palm farmers, a famers’ union member and representatives of the municipal institutions. Research findings show that initial differences regarding the activity remain until today. Those who defend the activity cite the possibilities of improving the quality of life for regional residents; defenders include a group of farmers and state government agents. Critics, those from municipal institutions, argue that oil palm cultivation is not fitting to the local reality and a separate group of farmers absorbed these criticisms and are apprehensive regarding the new activity.

The role of science in the Age of Denial and in times of pandemic: sustainability at the heart of the debate

2020-12-16T19:24:12-03:00

The role of science in the Age of Denial and in times of pandemic: sustainability at the heart of the debate