Predictive model of the outage of transmission lines exposed to wildfires

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18472/SustDeb.v14n3.2023.50771

Keywords:

Fires, Interruption, Electric power

Abstract

Transmission lines are essential for access to clean and affordable energy sources, Sustainable Development Goal 7. Wildfires are an important factor in the degradation of the quality of public transmission service provision. This work sought to build a model to predict the outage of a transmission line when exposed to a wildfire. The characteristics analysed of the spans exposed to fires of twelve transmission lines at a voltage level of 500 kV in Brazil totalled 3,998 km. The logistic regression technique was used for the study. It was possible to reach a model with a hit rate higher than 73% for the occurrence of transmission line outages. The quantity of fire outbreaks, the climatic variables, and the type of biome of the spans were observed to be the best predictive variables available. The temperature rise can potentially increase the number of outages caused by wildfires.

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Author Biographies

Tito Ricardo Vaz da Costa, PhD in Forestry Sciences, Specialist in Regulation, Brazilian National Electric Energy Agency - ANEEL, Brasília, DF, Brazil

Tito Ricardo Vaz da Costa is an electrical engineer graduated from the Federal University of Ceará - UFC (2004), with specialization in Corporate Finance Controllership from FIPECAFI/USP (2007), Master in Electrical Engineering from the University of Brasília - UnB (2013) and PhD in Forestry Sciences from UnB ( 2021). Professional active in the area of electrical energy, with emphasis on regulation of the electrical sector and energy transmission systems. Currently linked to the Brazilian National Electric Energy Agency - ANEEL, occupying the position of specialist in regulation.

Ailton Teixeira do Vale , PhD Degree in Energy in Agriculture, Professor, Universidade de Brasília – UnB, Brasília, DF, Brazil

Ailton Teixeira do Vale holds a degree in Forestry Engineering from the Federal University of Viçosa (1983), a Master's degree in Forestry Sciences from the Federal University of Viçosa (1988) and a PhD in Energy in Agriculture from the Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho (2000). He is currently Associate Professor 04 at the Department of Forestry at the University of Brasilia. He has experience in the area of Forestry Resources and Forestry Engineering, with emphasis on Physical and Energy Properties of Wood, Biomass in General and Agroforestry Waste, working mainly on the following subjects: pelletizing, briquetting, carbonization and wood roasting, agroforestry residues and bamboo

Clarissa Melo Lima, PhD in Forest Sciences, Temporary Professor, Universidade de Brasília – UnB, Brasília, DF, Brazil

Clarissa Melo Lima holds a PhD in Forest Sciences from the University of Brasília (2017); master's degree from the Department of Forest Engineering - University of Brasília (2013); and Graduation in Chemical Engineering from the Federal University of Ceará (2009). She is a substitute professor at the University of Brasília (UnB) / Faculdade de Planaltina (FUP). She was a collaborating professor at the University of Brasília, at the Faculty of Planaltina/FUP for one year, of the Environmental Management and Agribusiness Management Courses, for four years, at the Faculty of Economics, Administration, Accounting and Public Management/FACE/UnB, of the Business Administration and Public Policy Management Courses. 

Joaquim Carlos Gonçalez , PhD in Forestry Sciences, Professor, Universidade de Brasília – UnB, Brasília, DF, Brazil

Joaquim Carlos Gonçalez holds a degree in Forest Engineering from the Federal University of Viçosa (1980), a Master's in Forest Science from the Federal University of Viçosa (1983) and a PhD in Sciences Forestières - Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural et des Forêts - ENGREF/France, (1993). He is currently a Full Professor at the University of Brasilia. He has experience in the area of Forestry Resources and Forestry Engineering, with emphasis on Technology and Use of Forestry Products, working mainly on the following subjects: wood, colorimetry, ultraviolet radiation, ultrasound, image analysis, valuation, furniture, introduction of new technologies, cellulose, quality and properties. 

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Published

2023-12-11

How to Cite

Costa, T. R. V. da, Vale , A. T. do, Lima, C. M., & Gonçalez , J. C. (2023). Predictive model of the outage of transmission lines exposed to wildfires. Sustainability in Debate, 14(3), 140–159. https://doi.org/10.18472/SustDeb.v14n3.2023.50771

Issue

Vol. 14 No. 3 (2023): Sustainability in Debate / Sustentabilidade em Debate

Section

Dossier

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