Identification of extreme rainfall events and disasters triggered by rain in the city of Petrópolis-RJ
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18472/SustDeb.v14n2.2023.49463Keywords:
extreme precipitation, Petropolis-RJ, Disasters related to precipitation, Occurrence of disastersAbstract
The municipality of Petrópolis/RJ/Brazil is prone to extreme rainfall events that cause damage and direct and indirect economic losses. In order to verify the increase or not of these events, this study evaluates the temporal pattern of rainfall in the municipality (1976-2022), identifying whether the event that occurred in 2022 can be considered an extreme event, as well as the relationship between rainfall and impact intensity, in terms of damage and losses triggered. The accumulated rainfall over 24 hours (RX1), over 5 days (RX5), the 95th and 99th percentiles (R95 and R99), the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) and trend analyses using the Mann-Kendall method, as well as loss and damage data were then calculated. The results did not indicate a trend towards an increase in precipitation extremes, although they did confirm the February 2022 event as an extreme event, which stood out as the largest within the historical series analysed.
Downloads
References
ACCIARI, L.; RIBEIRO, M. Risk, resilience and gender in the current Petrópolis tragedy. UN Women, 2022. Available at: https://wrd.unwomen.org/explore/insights/risk-resilience-and-gender-current-petropolis-tragedy. Accessed on: 5 aug. 2023.
ALCÂNTARA, E. et al. Deadly disasters in Southeastern South America: flash floods and landslides of February 2022 in Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. Available at: https://doi.org/10.5194/ nhess-2022-163, 2022.
ARAÚJO, L. M. N. et al. Avaliação da distribuição espaço-temporal histórica de eventos chuvosos no Rio de Janeiro. In: XIV WORLD WATER CONGRESS, 2011, Porto de Galinhas. Proceedings [...], 2010.
ASSUMPÇÃO, R. S. F. V. Petrópolis – um histórico de desastres sem solução? Do Plano Koeller ao Programa Cidades Resilientes. 2015. Tese (Doutorado em Ciências na área de Saúde Pública) – Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sérgio Arouca, Rio de Janeiro, 2015. Available at: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/40233. Accessed on: 12 nov. 2022.
AVILA-DIAZ, A. et al. Assessing current and future trends of climate extremes across Brazil based on reanalyzes and earth system model projections. Climate Dynamics, v. 55, p. 1403–1426, 2020. Available at: https://doi. org/10.1007/s00382-020-05333-z.
BECK, Z. J. V. Meio ambiente e cidades resilientes: reflexões sobre o desastre em Petrópolis no ano de 2022. Revista da Emerj, v. 24, n. 2, p. 202–216. 2023.
BRASIL. Ministério do Desenvolvimento Regional. Secretaria de Proteção e Defesa Civil. Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina. Centro de Estudos e Pesquisas em Engenharia e Defesa Civil. Atlas Digital de Desastres no Brasil. Brasília: MDR, 2022. Available at: http://atlasdigital.mdr.gov.br/paginas/index.xhtml
BUNHAK, A. C. S.; WANDERLEY, H. S. Change in number of rainy days in the municipality of Visconde de Mauá, Rio de Janeiro. Journal of Biotechnology and Biodiversity, v. 8, n. 4. 2020. Available at: https://doi.org/10.20873/ jbb.uft.cemaf.v8n4.bunhak
CABRAL, V. et al. The consequences of debris flows in Brazil: a historical analysis based on recorded events in the last 100 years. Landslides, v. 20, p. 511–529, 2023. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-022-01984-7
CAMARINHA, P. I.; DEBORTOLI, N. S.; HIROTA, M. Índice de vulnerabilidade aos desastres naturais relacionados às secas no contexto de mudanças climáticas. Produto II: Relatório com os resultados e discussões sobre o índice de vulnerabilidade e avaliação dos impactos relacionados às secas para as diferentes regiões do Brasil. Florianópolis: WWF Brasil. 2015.
CEMADEN; IBGE. População em áreas de risco no Brasil. 2018. Available at: https://www.ibge.gov.br/ geociencias/organizacao-do-territorio/tipologias-do-territorio/21538-populacao-em-areas-de-risco-no-brasil. html?=&t=acesso-ao-produto. Accessed on: 15 nov. 2022.
COSTA, J. et al. Validação dos dados de precipitação estimados pelo Chirps para o Brasil. Revista Brasileira de Climatologia, v. 24, jan-jul. 2019. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.5380/abclima.v24i0.60237
COSTA, A. A. et al. Precipitation extremes over the tropical Americas under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios: results from dynamical downscaling simulations. International Journal of Climatology, p. 1–17. 2022. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7828.
COUTINHO, S. M. V. et al. The Nexus+ approach applied to studies of Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Brazil. Sustainability in Debate, [s. l.], v. 11, n. 3, p. 24–56, 2020. DOI 10.18472/SustDeb. v11n3.2020.33514.
DEBORTOLI, N. S. et al. An index of Brazil’s vulnerability to expected increases in natural flash flooding and landslide disasters in the context of climate change. Nat Hazards, v. 86, p. 557–582. 2017. DOI 10.1007/s11069- 016-2705-2.
DOURADO, F.; ARRAES, T. C.; SILVA, M. O Megadesastre da Região Serrana do Rio de Janeiro – as Causas do Evento, os Mecanismos dos Movimentos de Massa e a Distribuição Espacial dos Investimentos de Reconstrução no Pós-Desastre. Anuário do Instituto de Geociências, v. 35, n. 2, p. 43-54. 2012. Available at: http://dx.doi. org/10.11137/2012_2_43_54
FREITAS, M. A. S. Um sistema de suporte à decisão para o monitoramento de secas meteorológicas em regiões semiáridas. Revista Tecnologia, v. suplem, p. 84-95, 2005.
FUNK, C. et al. The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations – a new environmental record for monitoring extremes. Scientific data, v. 2, n. 1, p. 1-21, 2015. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.66
GRUBERTT, B. Seis meses após tragédia em Petrópolis, famílias retornam para áreas de risco e obras de contenção ainda não foram realizadas. G1, 15 ago. 2022. Bom Dia Rio. Available at: https://g1.globo.com/rj/rio- de-janeiro/noticia/2022/08/15/seis-meses-apos-tragedia-em-petropolis-familias-retornam-para-areas-de-risco. ghtml. Accessed on: 13 nov. 2022.
IBGE. Conselho Nacional de Estatística, Serviço Nacional de Recenseamento. Censo Demográfico de 1940. Available at: https://biblioteca.ibge.gov.br/visualizacao/periodicos/65/cd_1940_p15_rj.pdf. Accessed on: 18 nov. 2022.
IBGE. População em áreas de risco no Brasil. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE. 2018. 91 p.
IBGE. Censo Demográfico 2010. Rio de Janeiro, 2010. Available at: https://censo2010.ibge.gov.br/resultados.
html. Accessed on: 14 nov. 2022.
IBGE. Biomas e Sistema Costeiro Marinho do Brasil compatível com a escala 1:250.000. Série Relatórios Metodológicos. 2019. Available at: https://www.ibge.gov.br/apps/biomas/#/home. Accessed on: 4 nov. 2022.
IBGE. Cidades. Available at: http://cidades.ibge.gov.br/. Accessed on: 8 nov. 2022.
IPCC. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [FIELD, C. B. et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 2012. 582 p.
IPCC. Climate Change 2021: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V. et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, p. 3−32. 2022. DOI 10.1017/9781009157896.001.
IPCC. Climate Change 2022: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [PÖRTNER, H.-O. et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. 2022. DOI 10.1017/9781009325844
KENDALL, M. G. Rank Correlation Measures. Ed. Charles Griffin. London. Lira, C. S. 1975.
LAHSEN, M.; RIBOT, J. Politics of attributing extreme events and disasters to climate change. Wires Climate
change, v. 13. 2022. DOI 10.1002/wcc.750
MANN, H. B. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society, p. 245-259.
MAPBIOMAS. Mapeamento anual das áreas urbanizadas no Brasil entre 1985 e 2020. 2021. Available at: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cZ7KoUywnDcLAkokanjxoYmNAPffsVBW/view?usp=sharing. Accessed on: 28 nov. 2022.
MORAES, O. L. L. Proposing a metric to evaluate early warning system applicable to hydrometeorological disasters in Brazil. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, v. 87, 13p. 2023. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j. ijdrr.2023.103579
OSCAR JÚNIOR, A. C. Precipitation Trends and Variability in River Basins in Urban Expansion Areas. Water Resour Manage, v. 35, p. 661–674, 2021. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-020-02749-4
PAINEL BRASILEIRO DE MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS. Base científica das mudanças climáticas. Contribuição do Grupo de Trabalho 1 do Painel Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas ao Primeiro Relatório da Avaliação Nacional sobre Mudanças Climáticas [AMBRIZZI, T.; ARAÚJO, M. (eds.)]. COPPE. Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil, 464 p. 2-14. 2014.
PRABHAKAR, S. V. R. K.; SRINIVASAN, A.; SHAW, R. Climate change and local level disaster risk reduction planning: need, opportunities and challenges. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change, v. 14, p. 7–33. 2009.
PREFEITURA MUNICIPAL DE PETRÓPOLIS. Plano Municipal de Redução de Risco (PMRR): 1a (Revisão), 2o, 3o, 4o e 5o Distritos – Petrópolis, RJ - Programa de Urbanização, Regularização e Integração de Assentamentos Precários – 6a Etapa Reflexão e Proposição de Estratégias de Intervenções não estruturais para a Redução do Risco. Petrópolis: Prefeitura Municipal de Petrópolis (PMP) – Secretaria de Habitação (SEH), 2017. Available at: https://sig.petropolis.rj.gov.br/cpge/Reflexoes.pdf. Accessed on: 30 oct. 2022.
ROOY, M. P. V. A rainfall anomaly index independent of time and space. Notes. Weather Bureau of South Africa, v. 14, p. 43-48, 1965.
ROZANTE, J. R. et al. Combining TRMM and Surface Observations of Precipitation: technique and validation over South America. Weather and Forecasting, v. 25, p. 885-894, 2010.
SERVIÇO GEOLÓGICO DO ESTADO DO RIO DE JANEIRO. Cartografia Geotécnica de Aptidão Urbana, 1:10.000 de Petrópolis a “CGU do DRM” – junho/2015 – Relatório Técnico. 73 p. 2015.
SILVA, S. V. C. da. et al. Modelagem bayesiana da precipitação máxima de Petrópolis (RJ) e Poços de Caldas (MG). Engenharia Sanitária e Ambiental, v. 28, 2023. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1590/S1413-415220210342
SILVA, F. P. et al. Identification of rainfall and atmospheric patterns associated with Quitandinha River flooding events in Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil). Nat Hazards, v. 103, p. 3745–3764, 2020. Available at: https://doi. org/10.1007/s11069-020-04153-y
STOTT, P. A. et al. Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: climate change, [s. l.], v. 7, n. 1, p. 23–41, 2016. DOI 10.1002/wcc.380.
TORRES, G. P.; CARMO, L. F. R.; PALMEIRA, A. C. P. Estudo da relação entre precipitação e deslizamentos no município de Petrópolis-RJ. Revista S&G, n. 15, 2020.
VILLARINI, G. et al. Examining flood frequency distributions in the midwest U.S. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, v. 47, n. 3, p. 447-463, 2011. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752- 1688.2011.00540.x
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2023 Sustainability in Debate
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
SUSTAINABILITY IN DEBATE – Copyright Statement
The submission of original scientific work(s) by the authors, as the copyright holders of the text(s) sent to the journal, under the terms of Law 9.610/98, implies in the concession of copyrights of printed and/or digital publication to the Sustainability in Debate Journal of the article(s) approved for publication purposes, in a single issue of the journal. Furthermore, approved scientific work(s) will be released without any charge, or any kind of copyright reimbursement, through the journal’s website, for reading, printing and/or downloading of the text file, from the date of acceptance for publication purposes. Therefore, the authors, when submitting the article (s) to the journal, and gratuitous assignment of copyrights related to the submitted scientific work, are fully aware that they will not be remunerated for the publication of the article(s) in the journal.
The Sustainability in Debate Journal is licensed under Creative Commons License – Non-Commercial-No-Derivation Attribution (Derivative Work Ban) 3.0 Brazil, aiming at dissemination of scientific knowledge, as indicated on the journal's website, which allows the text to be shared, and be recognized in regards to its authorship and original publication in this journal.
Authors are allowed to sign additional contracts separately, for non-exclusive distribution of the works published in the Sustainability in Debate Journal (for example, in a book chapter), provided that it is expressed the texts were originally published in this journal. Authors are allowed and encouraged to publish and distribute their text online, following publication in Sustainability in Debate (e.g. in institutional repositories or their personal pages). The authors expressly agree to the terms of this Copyright Statement, which will be applied following the submission and publishing by this journal.