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Implications of climate change impacts for the Brazilian energy mix

Authors

  • Eveline Vasquez-Arroyo Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2307-9757
  • Dan Abensur Gandelman Departamento de Engenharia Agrícola e Meio Ambiente da Universidade Federal Fluminense https://orcid.org/
  • Fábio da Silva Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
  • Letícia Magalar Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
  • Diogo Victor Santos Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovações, MCTI, Brasília, DF, Brasil
  • André F. P. Lucena Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18472/SustDeb.v11n3.2020.33998

Abstract

Hydropower generation is responsible for supplying most of the electricity in Brazil. Like other renewable sources, water is highly sensitive to meteorological variables, so that climate change may have a considerable impact on it. Therefore, this study aims at assessing climate change impacts on hydropower generation and their consequences for the Brazilian electricity system. Scenario data for specific average global warming levels of 2°C and 4°C from Eta_HadGEM2-ES and Eta_MIROC5 downscaled climate models are used. Outcomes indicate that the electricity system’s adaptive capacity to lower hydropower generation includes a growing share of other renewable and natural gas fired thermoelectric generation, increasing the system’s marginal cost to meet projected demand in 2030. Greenhouse gas emissions are projected to increase in a 2°C scenario, but to decrease in scenarios in which warming reaches 4°C.

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Author Biographies

Eveline Vasquez-Arroyo, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.

Eveline is a Post-doctoral researcher at the Energy Planning Program (PPE/COPPE/UFRJ). She holds a bachelor degree in Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering by the Callao National University in Peru and a MSc and PhD in Environmental and Energy Planning by COPPE/UFRJ. She has several years of experience working in projects related to the water-energy-land use nexus and the relation with climate change by Integrated Assessment Models. She was a research assistant at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA-UAB). Eveline worked as external consultant for several international institutions, including UNDP. Currently, she is a Chapter Scientist in Chapter 12, Cross sectoral Perspectives, of the IPCC WG III AR6.

Fábio da Silva, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.

Letícia Magalar, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.

Diogo Victor Santos, Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovações, MCTI, Brasília, DF, Brasil

Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovações, MCTI, Brasília, DF, Brasil

André F. P. Lucena, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil

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Published

2020-12-31

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How to Cite

Vasquez-Arroyo, E., Abensur Gandelman, D., da Silva, F., Magalar, L. ., Santos, D. V. ., & F. P. Lucena, A. (2020). Implications of climate change impacts for the Brazilian energy mix. Sustainability in Debate, 11(3), 122–156. https://doi.org/10.18472/SustDeb.v11n3.2020.33998

Issue

Vol. 11 No. 3 (2020): Sustainability in Debate / Sustentabilidade em Debate

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Dossier

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