O processo de transição política na pós-Primavera Árabe Líbia
Mudança de regime imposta por estrangeiros, tribo, milícias e guerra civil
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20889/M47e21018Palavras-chave:
Líbia. Primavera Árabe. Intervenção militar da OTAN/Estados Unidos. Foreign Imposed Regime Change. Tribos. Milícias. Islamitas.Resumo
É possível exportar democracia pelo uso da força? Este artigo refere-se a essa questão, tomando como caso empírico a intervenção militar da OTAN/Estados Unidos no Líbano durante os levantes da Primavera Árabe em 2011 e seu seguimento. Propomo-nos a testar e refinar o modelo da Foreign Imposed Regime Change- FIRC (quantitativo) utilizando os métodos qualitativos de estudo de caso e process tracing. Tais métodos permitem identificar variáveis independentes não antecipadas pelo modelo FIRC, desvendando as reais e complexas clivagens sócio-políticas do país que inibem a democratização e abrem caminho para a guerra civil.
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