From Cardoso to Bolsonaro: Incrementalism Theory Explaining the Policy Making Process of Lula’s Bolsa Família

Résumé

This paper shows how Linblom’s incrementalism theory explains the policy making process of the Bolsa Família, the Brazilian Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) that was created in 2003. The argument is presented through an analysis of existing literature on incrementalism theory and then applying the theory to the Bolsa Família policy making process, demonstrating how it resulted in critical steps forward for public policy. Variations between existing policies of the Cardoso government and President Lula’s CCT were based on knowledge acquired with the ongoing policies and allowed for relevant incremental change, leading to the Bolsa Família’s long history of success in fighting extreme poverty. The policy process of the Bolsa Família empowered beneficiaries and policy transfer allowed other countries to replicate the Brazilian experience. However, incrementalism theory also explains how the Bolsonaro government has been able to decrease the program’s original objective without substantially changing its structure. Using the Bolsa Família as case study the conclusion is that incrementalism theory explains how policy evolves in polarized societies by eliminating the possibility of abrupt changes. The paper contributes to the body of work that argues that incrementalism theory is not outdated and can successfully explain contemporaneous policy making.