A comparative statistical analysis of the evidence of underreporting for COVID-19 in Brazil
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26512/gs.v11i3.32425Keywords:
Disease Notification, Mathematical Computing, Statistics & Numerical Data, Infectious Disease TransmissionAbstract
This article investigated the underreporting of COVID-19 in the Brazilian states, based upon data from South Korea and Italy as testing references and evaluating the relative underreporting based on their respective case fatality rates. We developed a statistical model that incorporates temporal and spatial aspects, analyzing the dispersion of COVID-19 from an epicenter and testing for 3 Brazilian federative units and four American states; the relative influence of the road network for the dispersion of COVID-19 in these states was also verified. The results indicate that 16 out of the 27 Brazilian federative units presented notification higher than the levels observed in Italy, but all of them showed evidence of underreporting when compared to the levels observed in South Korea. Evidence of underreporting from the interior in relation to the state capital was also discussed. The findings of the present study can contribute to a better understanding of the underreporting heterogeneities for different regions of Brazil, as well as assisting the prediction of regional healthcare system demands the estimation of of the pandemics duration at the regional level.
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