TODO EN TODAS PARTES AL MISMO TIEMPO: SEGMENTACIÓN ESTRATÉGICA DEL VOTO SUBNACIONAL EN ARGENTINA EN 2023, MÁS ALLÁ DE MILEI

Abstract

In 2023, Argentina experienced an electoral scenario marked by the tension between continuity and alternation of political forces in a context of multi-level elections. The socioeconomic and inflationary crisis generated uncertainty about the viability of the incumbent party's continued power at the national level. This situation, in a context of political territorialization, led governors to adopt differentiated electoral strategies to maintain their continuity in their respective provinces. Among the tactics implemented by them are simultaneous double voting or the modification of the electoral calendar to desynchronize the provincial elections from the presidential contest, maximizing their chances of success. This study aims to explain the factors that would have influenced the chances of success or failure of the provincial incumbents in the gubernatorial race. To this end, a subnational comparative approach was adopted through the use of logistic regression models and to account for the existence or absence of regionalized patterns of such dynamics. In this regard, the provincial and regional scenarios in which patterns of political continuity or alternation were recorded in the competition for governorship were identified, highlighting how subnational electoral decisions interacted with the national context and affected both institutional stability and the reconfiguration of political power in the provinces.