O modelo Steps-to-War: panorama de um programa de pesquisa
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20889/M47e22004Palavras-chave:
Relações Internacionais, Estudos de Paz e Conflito, Steps-to-WarResumo
O objetivo deste artigo é o de via revisão bibliográfica apresentar o modelo Steps-to-War, seu programa de pesquisa e alguns de seus resultados empíricos ao público brasileiro afeto à s Relações Internacionais. Isto porque, embora o modelo tenha se desenvolvido nos últimos vinte anos no exterior, não há até o momento literatura especializada em português que lide com ele, seja apresentado seus pressupostos ou testando-o em estudos empíricos.
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Referências
Altman, D. By Fait Accompli, Not Coercion: How States Wrest Territory from Their Adversaries. International Studies Quarterly, v. 61, p. 881”“891, 2017.
Butterfield, H. History and Human Relations. Londres: Collins, 1951.
Colaresi, M.; Rasler, K.; Thompson, W. Strategic Rivalries in World Politics: Position, Space and Conflict Escalation. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2008.
Colaresi, M.; Thompson, W. Hot Spots or Hot Hands? Serial Crisis Behavior, Escalating Risks, and Rivalry. Journal of Politics, v. 64, n. 4, p. 1175-1198, 2002a.
Colaresi, M.; Thompson, W. Strategic Rivalries, Protracted Conflict, and Crisis Escalation. Journal of Peace Research, v. 39, n. 3, p. 263-287, 2002b.
Colaresi, M.; Thompson, W. Alliances,Arms Buildups and Recurrent Conflict: Testing a Steps-to-War Model. The Journal of Politics, v. 67, n. 2, p. 345”“364, 2005.
Cox, E. Why Enduring Rivalries Do ”“ or Don’t End. Boulder: Lynne Reinner, 2010.
Diehl, P. What are they fighting for? The importance of Issues in International Conflict Research. Journal of Peace Research, v. 29, n. 3, p. 333-344, 1992.
Diehl, P.; Goertz, G. War and peace in International Rivalry. Ann Harbor: The University of Michigan Press, 2000.
Dreyer, D. Issue Intractability and the Persistence of International Rivalry. Conflict Management and Peace Science , v. 29, n. 5, p. 471 ”“489, 2012.
Easton, D. Uma Teoria de Análise Política. Rio de Janeiro: Zahar, 1968.
Fearon, J. Rationalist Explanations for War. International Organization, v. 49, n. 3, p. 379-414, 1995.
Gibler, D.; Rider, T.; Hutchison, M. Taking arms against a sea of troubles: conventional arms races during perios of rivalry. Journal of Peace Research, v. 42, n. 2, p. 131-147, 2005.
Godelier, M. L'idéel et le matériel: Pensée, économies, sociétés. Paris: Fayard, 1984.
Goertz, G.; Diehl, P. The empirical importance of enduring rivalries. International Interactions, v. 18, n. 2, p. 151-163, 1992.
Goertz, G.; Diehl, P. Enduring Rivalries: Theoretical Constructs and Empirical Patterns. International Studies Quarterly, v. 37, n. 2, p. 147-171, 1993.
Goertz, G.; Diehl, P. The Initiation and Termination of Enduring Rivalries: The Impact of Political Shocks. American Journal of Political Science, v. 39, n. 1, p. 30-52, 1995.
Goertz, G.; Diehl, P.; Balas, A. The Puzzle of Peace: the evolution of peace in the international system. New York: Oxford University Press, 2016.
Hassner, R. To Halve and to Hold: Conflicts Over Sacred Space and the Problem of Indivisibility. Security Studies, v. 12, n. 2, p. 1-33, 2003.
Hensel, P. Charting a Course to Conflict: territorial issues and interstate conflict, 1816-1992. Conflict Management and Peace Science, v. 31, n. 3, p. 281- 297, 1996.
Hensel, P. An Evolutionary Approach to the Study of Interstate Rivalry. Conflict Management and Peace Science, v. 17, p. 175-206, 1999.
Hensel, P.; Mitchell, S. Issue indivisibility and territorial claims. GeoJournal, v. 64, p. 275-285, 2005.
Hensel, P. et al. Bones of Contention: Comparing Territorial, Maritime, and River Issues. Journal of Conflict Resolution , v. 52, n. 1, p. 117-143, 2008.
Herz, J. Political Realism and Political Idealism. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1959.
Holsti, K. Peace and War: armed conflicts and international order, 1648-1989. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991.
Huth, P. Standing your ground: territorial disputes and international conflict. Michigan: University of Michigan Press, 1998.
Jervis, R. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1976.
Jervis, R. Cooperation Under the Security Dilemm. World Politics, v. 30, n. 2, p. 167-214 , 1978.
Johnson, J.; Leeds, B. Defense Pacts: A Prescription for Peace? Foreign Policy Analysis , v. 7, n. 1, p. 45”“65, 2011.
Jones, D.; Bremer, S.; Singer, D. Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816-1992: Rationale, Coding Rules and Empirical Patterns. Conflict Management and Peace Science, v. 15, p. 162-213, 1996.
Kenwick, M.; Vasquez, J.; Powers, M. Do Alliances Really Deter? The Journal of Politics, v. 77, n. 4, p. 943-954, 2015.
Keohane, R. After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1984.
Klein, J.; Goertz, G.; Diehl, P. The New Rivalry Dataset: Procedures and Patterns. Journal of Peace Research , v. 43, n. 3, p. 331-348, 2006.
Leeds, B. et al. Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions, 1815-1944. International Interactions, v. 28, n. 3, p. 237-260, 2002.
Leeds, B.; Morgan, C. The Quest for Security: Alliances and Arms. In: Mitchell, S.; Diehl, P.; Morrow, J. Guide to the Scientific Studies of International Processes. Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell, 2012.
Leeds, B.; Johnson, J. Theory, Data and Deterrence: A response to Kenwick, Vasquez and Powers. Journal of Politics, v. 79, n. 1, p. 335-340, 2016.
Mansbach, R.; Vasquez, J. Search of a Theory: A New Paradigm for Global Politics. New York: Columbia University Press, 1981.
Maoz, Z.; Mor, B. Bound by Struggle: The Strategic Evolution of Enduring Rivalries. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2002.
O’Leary, M. The role of issues. In: Rosenau, J. In Search of Global Patterns. New York: Free Press, 1976.
Owsiak, A. The Steps to War: Theory and Evidence. In: Thompson, W. Encyclopedia of Empirical International Relations Theory. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2017.
Owsiak, A.; Rider, T. Clearing the Hurdle: Border Settlement and Rivalry Termination. Journal of Politics, v. 75, n. 3, p. 757 ”“ 772, 2013.
Owsiak, A.; Mitchell, S. Conflict Management in Land, River, and Maritime Claims. Political Science Research and Methods, v. 7, n. 1, p. 43-61, 2017.
Paré, G.; Trudel, M.-C.; Kitsiou, S. Synthesizing information systems knowledge: a typology of literature reviews. Information & Management, v.52, n.2, p.183-199, 2015
Potter, W. Issue area and foreign policy analysis. International Organization, v. 34, n. 3, p. 405”“427, 1980.
Powell, R. War as a Commitment Problem. International Organization, v. 60, n. 1, 2006.
Pruitt, D.; Rubin, J. Social Conflict: Escalation, Stalemate and Settlement. New York: Random House, 1986.
Randle, R. Issues in the History of International Relations: The Role of Issues in the Evolution of the State System. New York: Praeger, 1987.
Rasler, K.; Thompson, W. Contested Territory, Strategic Rivalries, and Conflict Escalation. International Studies Quarterly, v. 50, p. 145”“167, 2006.
Rasler, K.; Thompson, W. Ganguly, S. How Rivalries End. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2013.
Rider, T. Understanding Arms Race Onset: Rivalry, Threat, and Territorial Competition. The Journal of Politics, v. 71, n. 2, p. 693-703, 2009.
Rider, T.; Findley, M.; Diehl, P. Just part of the game? Arms races, rivalry and war. Journal of Peace Research, v. 48, n. 1, p. 85-100, 2011.
Rider, T.; Owsiak, A. Border settlement, commitment problems, and the causes of contiguous rivalry. Journal of Peace Research, v. 52, n. 4, p. 508-521, 2015.
Rosenau, J. Pre-Theories and Theories of Foreign Policy. In: Rosenau, J. The Scientific Study of Foreign Policy. New York: Free Press, 1971.
Sample, S. Arms races and dispute escalation: resolving the debate. Journal of Peace Research, v. 34, n. 1, p. 7-22, 1997.
Sample, S. From territorial claim to war: timing, causation, and the Steps-to-War. International Interactions, v. 40, p. 270-285, 2014.
Sample, S. Anticipating War? War preparations and the Steps-to-War thesis. British Journal of Political Science, v. 48, n. 2, p. 489-511, 2016.
Senese, P.; Vasquez, J. A Unified Explanation of Territorial Conflict: Testing the Impact of Sampling Bias, 1919-1992. International Studies Quarterly, v. 47, n. 2, p. 275-298, 2003.
Senese, P.; Vasquez, J. The steps to war: an empirical study. New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 2008.
Starr, H. Territory, Proximity, and Spatiality: the geography of international conflict. International Studies Review, v. 7, n. 3, p. 387-406, 2005.
Thompson, W. Identifying Rivals and Rivalries in World Politics. International Studies Quarterly, v. 45, p. 557-586, 2001.
Tir, J. Territorial Diversion: Diversionary Theory of War and Territorial Conflict. The Journal of Politics, v. 72, n. 2, p. 413-425 , 2010.
Toft, M. Issue Indivisibility and Time Horizons as Rationalist Explanations for War. Security Studies, v. 15, n. 1, p. 34-69, 2006.
Valeriano, B. Becoming Rivals: the process of interstate rivalry development. New York: Routledge , 2013.
Vasquez, J. The War Puzzle. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993.
Vasquez, J. Why Do Neighbors Fight? Proximity, Interaction, or Territoriality. Journal of Peace Research, v. 32, n. 3, p. 277-293, 1995.
Vasquez, J.; Henehan, M. Territorial Disputes and the Probability of War, 1816-1992. Journal of Peace Research, v. 38, n. 2, p. 123-138, 2001.
Walter, B. Explaining the Intractability of Territorial Conflict. International Studies Review , v. 5, n. 4, p. 137-153 , 2003.
Wiegand, K. Enduring Territorial Disputes: Strategies of Bargaining, Coercive Diplomacy, and Settlement. Athens: University of Georgia, 2011.
Butterfield, H. History and Human Relations. Londres: Collins, 1951.
Colaresi, M.; Rasler, K.; Thompson, W. Strategic Rivalries in World Politics: Position, Space and Conflict Escalation. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2008.
Colaresi, M.; Thompson, W. Hot Spots or Hot Hands? Serial Crisis Behavior, Escalating Risks, and Rivalry. Journal of Politics, v. 64, n. 4, p. 1175-1198, 2002a.
Colaresi, M.; Thompson, W. Strategic Rivalries, Protracted Conflict, and Crisis Escalation. Journal of Peace Research, v. 39, n. 3, p. 263-287, 2002b.
Colaresi, M.; Thompson, W. Alliances,Arms Buildups and Recurrent Conflict: Testing a Steps-to-War Model. The Journal of Politics, v. 67, n. 2, p. 345”“364, 2005.
Cox, E. Why Enduring Rivalries Do ”“ or Don’t End. Boulder: Lynne Reinner, 2010.
Diehl, P. What are they fighting for? The importance of Issues in International Conflict Research. Journal of Peace Research, v. 29, n. 3, p. 333-344, 1992.
Diehl, P.; Goertz, G. War and peace in International Rivalry. Ann Harbor: The University of Michigan Press, 2000.
Dreyer, D. Issue Intractability and the Persistence of International Rivalry. Conflict Management and Peace Science , v. 29, n. 5, p. 471 ”“489, 2012.
Easton, D. Uma Teoria de Análise Política. Rio de Janeiro: Zahar, 1968.
Fearon, J. Rationalist Explanations for War. International Organization, v. 49, n. 3, p. 379-414, 1995.
Gibler, D.; Rider, T.; Hutchison, M. Taking arms against a sea of troubles: conventional arms races during perios of rivalry. Journal of Peace Research, v. 42, n. 2, p. 131-147, 2005.
Godelier, M. L'idéel et le matériel: Pensée, économies, sociétés. Paris: Fayard, 1984.
Goertz, G.; Diehl, P. The empirical importance of enduring rivalries. International Interactions, v. 18, n. 2, p. 151-163, 1992.
Goertz, G.; Diehl, P. Enduring Rivalries: Theoretical Constructs and Empirical Patterns. International Studies Quarterly, v. 37, n. 2, p. 147-171, 1993.
Goertz, G.; Diehl, P. The Initiation and Termination of Enduring Rivalries: The Impact of Political Shocks. American Journal of Political Science, v. 39, n. 1, p. 30-52, 1995.
Goertz, G.; Diehl, P.; Balas, A. The Puzzle of Peace: the evolution of peace in the international system. New York: Oxford University Press, 2016.
Hassner, R. To Halve and to Hold: Conflicts Over Sacred Space and the Problem of Indivisibility. Security Studies, v. 12, n. 2, p. 1-33, 2003.
Hensel, P. Charting a Course to Conflict: territorial issues and interstate conflict, 1816-1992. Conflict Management and Peace Science, v. 31, n. 3, p. 281- 297, 1996.
Hensel, P. An Evolutionary Approach to the Study of Interstate Rivalry. Conflict Management and Peace Science, v. 17, p. 175-206, 1999.
Hensel, P.; Mitchell, S. Issue indivisibility and territorial claims. GeoJournal, v. 64, p. 275-285, 2005.
Hensel, P. et al. Bones of Contention: Comparing Territorial, Maritime, and River Issues. Journal of Conflict Resolution , v. 52, n. 1, p. 117-143, 2008.
Herz, J. Political Realism and Political Idealism. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1959.
Holsti, K. Peace and War: armed conflicts and international order, 1648-1989. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991.
Huth, P. Standing your ground: territorial disputes and international conflict. Michigan: University of Michigan Press, 1998.
Jervis, R. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1976.
Jervis, R. Cooperation Under the Security Dilemm. World Politics, v. 30, n. 2, p. 167-214 , 1978.
Johnson, J.; Leeds, B. Defense Pacts: A Prescription for Peace? Foreign Policy Analysis , v. 7, n. 1, p. 45”“65, 2011.
Jones, D.; Bremer, S.; Singer, D. Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816-1992: Rationale, Coding Rules and Empirical Patterns. Conflict Management and Peace Science, v. 15, p. 162-213, 1996.
Kenwick, M.; Vasquez, J.; Powers, M. Do Alliances Really Deter? The Journal of Politics, v. 77, n. 4, p. 943-954, 2015.
Keohane, R. After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1984.
Klein, J.; Goertz, G.; Diehl, P. The New Rivalry Dataset: Procedures and Patterns. Journal of Peace Research , v. 43, n. 3, p. 331-348, 2006.
Leeds, B. et al. Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions, 1815-1944. International Interactions, v. 28, n. 3, p. 237-260, 2002.
Leeds, B.; Morgan, C. The Quest for Security: Alliances and Arms. In: Mitchell, S.; Diehl, P.; Morrow, J. Guide to the Scientific Studies of International Processes. Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell, 2012.
Leeds, B.; Johnson, J. Theory, Data and Deterrence: A response to Kenwick, Vasquez and Powers. Journal of Politics, v. 79, n. 1, p. 335-340, 2016.
Mansbach, R.; Vasquez, J. Search of a Theory: A New Paradigm for Global Politics. New York: Columbia University Press, 1981.
Maoz, Z.; Mor, B. Bound by Struggle: The Strategic Evolution of Enduring Rivalries. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2002.
O’Leary, M. The role of issues. In: Rosenau, J. In Search of Global Patterns. New York: Free Press, 1976.
Owsiak, A. The Steps to War: Theory and Evidence. In: Thompson, W. Encyclopedia of Empirical International Relations Theory. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2017.
Owsiak, A.; Rider, T. Clearing the Hurdle: Border Settlement and Rivalry Termination. Journal of Politics, v. 75, n. 3, p. 757 ”“ 772, 2013.
Owsiak, A.; Mitchell, S. Conflict Management in Land, River, and Maritime Claims. Political Science Research and Methods, v. 7, n. 1, p. 43-61, 2017.
Paré, G.; Trudel, M.-C.; Kitsiou, S. Synthesizing information systems knowledge: a typology of literature reviews. Information & Management, v.52, n.2, p.183-199, 2015
Potter, W. Issue area and foreign policy analysis. International Organization, v. 34, n. 3, p. 405”“427, 1980.
Powell, R. War as a Commitment Problem. International Organization, v. 60, n. 1, 2006.
Pruitt, D.; Rubin, J. Social Conflict: Escalation, Stalemate and Settlement. New York: Random House, 1986.
Randle, R. Issues in the History of International Relations: The Role of Issues in the Evolution of the State System. New York: Praeger, 1987.
Rasler, K.; Thompson, W. Contested Territory, Strategic Rivalries, and Conflict Escalation. International Studies Quarterly, v. 50, p. 145”“167, 2006.
Rasler, K.; Thompson, W. Ganguly, S. How Rivalries End. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2013.
Rider, T. Understanding Arms Race Onset: Rivalry, Threat, and Territorial Competition. The Journal of Politics, v. 71, n. 2, p. 693-703, 2009.
Rider, T.; Findley, M.; Diehl, P. Just part of the game? Arms races, rivalry and war. Journal of Peace Research, v. 48, n. 1, p. 85-100, 2011.
Rider, T.; Owsiak, A. Border settlement, commitment problems, and the causes of contiguous rivalry. Journal of Peace Research, v. 52, n. 4, p. 508-521, 2015.
Rosenau, J. Pre-Theories and Theories of Foreign Policy. In: Rosenau, J. The Scientific Study of Foreign Policy. New York: Free Press, 1971.
Sample, S. Arms races and dispute escalation: resolving the debate. Journal of Peace Research, v. 34, n. 1, p. 7-22, 1997.
Sample, S. From territorial claim to war: timing, causation, and the Steps-to-War. International Interactions, v. 40, p. 270-285, 2014.
Sample, S. Anticipating War? War preparations and the Steps-to-War thesis. British Journal of Political Science, v. 48, n. 2, p. 489-511, 2016.
Senese, P.; Vasquez, J. A Unified Explanation of Territorial Conflict: Testing the Impact of Sampling Bias, 1919-1992. International Studies Quarterly, v. 47, n. 2, p. 275-298, 2003.
Senese, P.; Vasquez, J. The steps to war: an empirical study. New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 2008.
Starr, H. Territory, Proximity, and Spatiality: the geography of international conflict. International Studies Review, v. 7, n. 3, p. 387-406, 2005.
Thompson, W. Identifying Rivals and Rivalries in World Politics. International Studies Quarterly, v. 45, p. 557-586, 2001.
Tir, J. Territorial Diversion: Diversionary Theory of War and Territorial Conflict. The Journal of Politics, v. 72, n. 2, p. 413-425 , 2010.
Toft, M. Issue Indivisibility and Time Horizons as Rationalist Explanations for War. Security Studies, v. 15, n. 1, p. 34-69, 2006.
Valeriano, B. Becoming Rivals: the process of interstate rivalry development. New York: Routledge , 2013.
Vasquez, J. The War Puzzle. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993.
Vasquez, J. Why Do Neighbors Fight? Proximity, Interaction, or Territoriality. Journal of Peace Research, v. 32, n. 3, p. 277-293, 1995.
Vasquez, J.; Henehan, M. Territorial Disputes and the Probability of War, 1816-1992. Journal of Peace Research, v. 38, n. 2, p. 123-138, 2001.
Walter, B. Explaining the Intractability of Territorial Conflict. International Studies Review , v. 5, n. 4, p. 137-153 , 2003.
Wiegand, K. Enduring Territorial Disputes: Strategies of Bargaining, Coercive Diplomacy, and Settlement. Athens: University of Georgia, 2011.
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2021-04-20
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Diniz Rocha, Pedro. 2021. “O Modelo Steps-to-War: Panorama De Um Programa De Pesquisa”. Meridiano 47 - Journal of Global Studies 22 (abril). https://doi.org/10.20889/M47e22004.
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