Steps-to-War: an overview of its research program
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20889/M47e22004Keywords:
International Relations, Peace and Conflict Studies, Steps-to-WarAbstract
The aim of this paper is to present, via a literature review, the Steps-to-War model, its research program and some of the results gathered over the years to the Brazilian International Relations community. This is because, although the model has developed abroad over the last twenty years, there is not yet specialized literature published in Portuguese dealing with the Steps-to-War, presenting its main assumptions, or testing them empirically.
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References
Altman, D. By Fait Accompli, Not Coercion: How States Wrest Territory from Their Adversaries. International Studies Quarterly, v. 61, p. 881”“891, 2017.
Butterfield, H. History and Human Relations. Londres: Collins, 1951.
Colaresi, M.; Rasler, K.; Thompson, W. Strategic Rivalries in World Politics: Position, Space and Conflict Escalation. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2008.
Colaresi, M.; Thompson, W. Hot Spots or Hot Hands? Serial Crisis Behavior, Escalating Risks, and Rivalry. Journal of Politics, v. 64, n. 4, p. 1175-1198, 2002a.
Colaresi, M.; Thompson, W. Strategic Rivalries, Protracted Conflict, and Crisis Escalation. Journal of Peace Research, v. 39, n. 3, p. 263-287, 2002b.
Colaresi, M.; Thompson, W. Alliances,Arms Buildups and Recurrent Conflict: Testing a Steps-to-War Model. The Journal of Politics, v. 67, n. 2, p. 345”“364, 2005.
Cox, E. Why Enduring Rivalries Do ”“ or Don’t End. Boulder: Lynne Reinner, 2010.
Diehl, P. What are they fighting for? The importance of Issues in International Conflict Research. Journal of Peace Research, v. 29, n. 3, p. 333-344, 1992.
Diehl, P.; Goertz, G. War and peace in International Rivalry. Ann Harbor: The University of Michigan Press, 2000.
Dreyer, D. Issue Intractability and the Persistence of International Rivalry. Conflict Management and Peace Science , v. 29, n. 5, p. 471 ”“489, 2012.
Easton, D. Uma Teoria de Análise Política. Rio de Janeiro: Zahar, 1968.
Fearon, J. Rationalist Explanations for War. International Organization, v. 49, n. 3, p. 379-414, 1995.
Gibler, D.; Rider, T.; Hutchison, M. Taking arms against a sea of troubles: conventional arms races during perios of rivalry. Journal of Peace Research, v. 42, n. 2, p. 131-147, 2005.
Godelier, M. L'idéel et le matériel: Pensée, économies, sociétés. Paris: Fayard, 1984.
Goertz, G.; Diehl, P. The empirical importance of enduring rivalries. International Interactions, v. 18, n. 2, p. 151-163, 1992.
Goertz, G.; Diehl, P. Enduring Rivalries: Theoretical Constructs and Empirical Patterns. International Studies Quarterly, v. 37, n. 2, p. 147-171, 1993.
Goertz, G.; Diehl, P. The Initiation and Termination of Enduring Rivalries: The Impact of Political Shocks. American Journal of Political Science, v. 39, n. 1, p. 30-52, 1995.
Goertz, G.; Diehl, P.; Balas, A. The Puzzle of Peace: the evolution of peace in the international system. New York: Oxford University Press, 2016.
Hassner, R. To Halve and to Hold: Conflicts Over Sacred Space and the Problem of Indivisibility. Security Studies, v. 12, n. 2, p. 1-33, 2003.
Hensel, P. Charting a Course to Conflict: territorial issues and interstate conflict, 1816-1992. Conflict Management and Peace Science, v. 31, n. 3, p. 281- 297, 1996.
Hensel, P. An Evolutionary Approach to the Study of Interstate Rivalry. Conflict Management and Peace Science, v. 17, p. 175-206, 1999.
Hensel, P.; Mitchell, S. Issue indivisibility and territorial claims. GeoJournal, v. 64, p. 275-285, 2005.
Hensel, P. et al. Bones of Contention: Comparing Territorial, Maritime, and River Issues. Journal of Conflict Resolution , v. 52, n. 1, p. 117-143, 2008.
Herz, J. Political Realism and Political Idealism. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1959.
Holsti, K. Peace and War: armed conflicts and international order, 1648-1989. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991.
Huth, P. Standing your ground: territorial disputes and international conflict. Michigan: University of Michigan Press, 1998.
Jervis, R. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1976.
Jervis, R. Cooperation Under the Security Dilemm. World Politics, v. 30, n. 2, p. 167-214 , 1978.
Johnson, J.; Leeds, B. Defense Pacts: A Prescription for Peace? Foreign Policy Analysis , v. 7, n. 1, p. 45”“65, 2011.
Jones, D.; Bremer, S.; Singer, D. Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816-1992: Rationale, Coding Rules and Empirical Patterns. Conflict Management and Peace Science, v. 15, p. 162-213, 1996.
Kenwick, M.; Vasquez, J.; Powers, M. Do Alliances Really Deter? The Journal of Politics, v. 77, n. 4, p. 943-954, 2015.
Keohane, R. After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1984.
Klein, J.; Goertz, G.; Diehl, P. The New Rivalry Dataset: Procedures and Patterns. Journal of Peace Research , v. 43, n. 3, p. 331-348, 2006.
Leeds, B. et al. Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions, 1815-1944. International Interactions, v. 28, n. 3, p. 237-260, 2002.
Leeds, B.; Morgan, C. The Quest for Security: Alliances and Arms. In: Mitchell, S.; Diehl, P.; Morrow, J. Guide to the Scientific Studies of International Processes. Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell, 2012.
Leeds, B.; Johnson, J. Theory, Data and Deterrence: A response to Kenwick, Vasquez and Powers. Journal of Politics, v. 79, n. 1, p. 335-340, 2016.
Mansbach, R.; Vasquez, J. Search of a Theory: A New Paradigm for Global Politics. New York: Columbia University Press, 1981.
Maoz, Z.; Mor, B. Bound by Struggle: The Strategic Evolution of Enduring Rivalries. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2002.
O’Leary, M. The role of issues. In: Rosenau, J. In Search of Global Patterns. New York: Free Press, 1976.
Owsiak, A. The Steps to War: Theory and Evidence. In: Thompson, W. Encyclopedia of Empirical International Relations Theory. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2017.
Owsiak, A.; Rider, T. Clearing the Hurdle: Border Settlement and Rivalry Termination. Journal of Politics, v. 75, n. 3, p. 757 ”“ 772, 2013.
Owsiak, A.; Mitchell, S. Conflict Management in Land, River, and Maritime Claims. Political Science Research and Methods, v. 7, n. 1, p. 43-61, 2017.
Paré, G.; Trudel, M.-C.; Kitsiou, S. Synthesizing information systems knowledge: a typology of literature reviews. Information & Management, v.52, n.2, p.183-199, 2015
Potter, W. Issue area and foreign policy analysis. International Organization, v. 34, n. 3, p. 405”“427, 1980.
Powell, R. War as a Commitment Problem. International Organization, v. 60, n. 1, 2006.
Pruitt, D.; Rubin, J. Social Conflict: Escalation, Stalemate and Settlement. New York: Random House, 1986.
Randle, R. Issues in the History of International Relations: The Role of Issues in the Evolution of the State System. New York: Praeger, 1987.
Rasler, K.; Thompson, W. Contested Territory, Strategic Rivalries, and Conflict Escalation. International Studies Quarterly, v. 50, p. 145”“167, 2006.
Rasler, K.; Thompson, W. Ganguly, S. How Rivalries End. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2013.
Rider, T. Understanding Arms Race Onset: Rivalry, Threat, and Territorial Competition. The Journal of Politics, v. 71, n. 2, p. 693-703, 2009.
Rider, T.; Findley, M.; Diehl, P. Just part of the game? Arms races, rivalry and war. Journal of Peace Research, v. 48, n. 1, p. 85-100, 2011.
Rider, T.; Owsiak, A. Border settlement, commitment problems, and the causes of contiguous rivalry. Journal of Peace Research, v. 52, n. 4, p. 508-521, 2015.
Rosenau, J. Pre-Theories and Theories of Foreign Policy. In: Rosenau, J. The Scientific Study of Foreign Policy. New York: Free Press, 1971.
Sample, S. Arms races and dispute escalation: resolving the debate. Journal of Peace Research, v. 34, n. 1, p. 7-22, 1997.
Sample, S. From territorial claim to war: timing, causation, and the Steps-to-War. International Interactions, v. 40, p. 270-285, 2014.
Sample, S. Anticipating War? War preparations and the Steps-to-War thesis. British Journal of Political Science, v. 48, n. 2, p. 489-511, 2016.
Senese, P.; Vasquez, J. A Unified Explanation of Territorial Conflict: Testing the Impact of Sampling Bias, 1919-1992. International Studies Quarterly, v. 47, n. 2, p. 275-298, 2003.
Senese, P.; Vasquez, J. The steps to war: an empirical study. New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 2008.
Starr, H. Territory, Proximity, and Spatiality: the geography of international conflict. International Studies Review, v. 7, n. 3, p. 387-406, 2005.
Thompson, W. Identifying Rivals and Rivalries in World Politics. International Studies Quarterly, v. 45, p. 557-586, 2001.
Tir, J. Territorial Diversion: Diversionary Theory of War and Territorial Conflict. The Journal of Politics, v. 72, n. 2, p. 413-425 , 2010.
Toft, M. Issue Indivisibility and Time Horizons as Rationalist Explanations for War. Security Studies, v. 15, n. 1, p. 34-69, 2006.
Valeriano, B. Becoming Rivals: the process of interstate rivalry development. New York: Routledge , 2013.
Vasquez, J. The War Puzzle. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993.
Vasquez, J. Why Do Neighbors Fight? Proximity, Interaction, or Territoriality. Journal of Peace Research, v. 32, n. 3, p. 277-293, 1995.
Vasquez, J.; Henehan, M. Territorial Disputes and the Probability of War, 1816-1992. Journal of Peace Research, v. 38, n. 2, p. 123-138, 2001.
Walter, B. Explaining the Intractability of Territorial Conflict. International Studies Review , v. 5, n. 4, p. 137-153 , 2003.
Wiegand, K. Enduring Territorial Disputes: Strategies of Bargaining, Coercive Diplomacy, and Settlement. Athens: University of Georgia, 2011.
Butterfield, H. History and Human Relations. Londres: Collins, 1951.
Colaresi, M.; Rasler, K.; Thompson, W. Strategic Rivalries in World Politics: Position, Space and Conflict Escalation. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2008.
Colaresi, M.; Thompson, W. Hot Spots or Hot Hands? Serial Crisis Behavior, Escalating Risks, and Rivalry. Journal of Politics, v. 64, n. 4, p. 1175-1198, 2002a.
Colaresi, M.; Thompson, W. Strategic Rivalries, Protracted Conflict, and Crisis Escalation. Journal of Peace Research, v. 39, n. 3, p. 263-287, 2002b.
Colaresi, M.; Thompson, W. Alliances,Arms Buildups and Recurrent Conflict: Testing a Steps-to-War Model. The Journal of Politics, v. 67, n. 2, p. 345”“364, 2005.
Cox, E. Why Enduring Rivalries Do ”“ or Don’t End. Boulder: Lynne Reinner, 2010.
Diehl, P. What are they fighting for? The importance of Issues in International Conflict Research. Journal of Peace Research, v. 29, n. 3, p. 333-344, 1992.
Diehl, P.; Goertz, G. War and peace in International Rivalry. Ann Harbor: The University of Michigan Press, 2000.
Dreyer, D. Issue Intractability and the Persistence of International Rivalry. Conflict Management and Peace Science , v. 29, n. 5, p. 471 ”“489, 2012.
Easton, D. Uma Teoria de Análise Política. Rio de Janeiro: Zahar, 1968.
Fearon, J. Rationalist Explanations for War. International Organization, v. 49, n. 3, p. 379-414, 1995.
Gibler, D.; Rider, T.; Hutchison, M. Taking arms against a sea of troubles: conventional arms races during perios of rivalry. Journal of Peace Research, v. 42, n. 2, p. 131-147, 2005.
Godelier, M. L'idéel et le matériel: Pensée, économies, sociétés. Paris: Fayard, 1984.
Goertz, G.; Diehl, P. The empirical importance of enduring rivalries. International Interactions, v. 18, n. 2, p. 151-163, 1992.
Goertz, G.; Diehl, P. Enduring Rivalries: Theoretical Constructs and Empirical Patterns. International Studies Quarterly, v. 37, n. 2, p. 147-171, 1993.
Goertz, G.; Diehl, P. The Initiation and Termination of Enduring Rivalries: The Impact of Political Shocks. American Journal of Political Science, v. 39, n. 1, p. 30-52, 1995.
Goertz, G.; Diehl, P.; Balas, A. The Puzzle of Peace: the evolution of peace in the international system. New York: Oxford University Press, 2016.
Hassner, R. To Halve and to Hold: Conflicts Over Sacred Space and the Problem of Indivisibility. Security Studies, v. 12, n. 2, p. 1-33, 2003.
Hensel, P. Charting a Course to Conflict: territorial issues and interstate conflict, 1816-1992. Conflict Management and Peace Science, v. 31, n. 3, p. 281- 297, 1996.
Hensel, P. An Evolutionary Approach to the Study of Interstate Rivalry. Conflict Management and Peace Science, v. 17, p. 175-206, 1999.
Hensel, P.; Mitchell, S. Issue indivisibility and territorial claims. GeoJournal, v. 64, p. 275-285, 2005.
Hensel, P. et al. Bones of Contention: Comparing Territorial, Maritime, and River Issues. Journal of Conflict Resolution , v. 52, n. 1, p. 117-143, 2008.
Herz, J. Political Realism and Political Idealism. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1959.
Holsti, K. Peace and War: armed conflicts and international order, 1648-1989. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991.
Huth, P. Standing your ground: territorial disputes and international conflict. Michigan: University of Michigan Press, 1998.
Jervis, R. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1976.
Jervis, R. Cooperation Under the Security Dilemm. World Politics, v. 30, n. 2, p. 167-214 , 1978.
Johnson, J.; Leeds, B. Defense Pacts: A Prescription for Peace? Foreign Policy Analysis , v. 7, n. 1, p. 45”“65, 2011.
Jones, D.; Bremer, S.; Singer, D. Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816-1992: Rationale, Coding Rules and Empirical Patterns. Conflict Management and Peace Science, v. 15, p. 162-213, 1996.
Kenwick, M.; Vasquez, J.; Powers, M. Do Alliances Really Deter? The Journal of Politics, v. 77, n. 4, p. 943-954, 2015.
Keohane, R. After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1984.
Klein, J.; Goertz, G.; Diehl, P. The New Rivalry Dataset: Procedures and Patterns. Journal of Peace Research , v. 43, n. 3, p. 331-348, 2006.
Leeds, B. et al. Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions, 1815-1944. International Interactions, v. 28, n. 3, p. 237-260, 2002.
Leeds, B.; Morgan, C. The Quest for Security: Alliances and Arms. In: Mitchell, S.; Diehl, P.; Morrow, J. Guide to the Scientific Studies of International Processes. Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell, 2012.
Leeds, B.; Johnson, J. Theory, Data and Deterrence: A response to Kenwick, Vasquez and Powers. Journal of Politics, v. 79, n. 1, p. 335-340, 2016.
Mansbach, R.; Vasquez, J. Search of a Theory: A New Paradigm for Global Politics. New York: Columbia University Press, 1981.
Maoz, Z.; Mor, B. Bound by Struggle: The Strategic Evolution of Enduring Rivalries. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2002.
O’Leary, M. The role of issues. In: Rosenau, J. In Search of Global Patterns. New York: Free Press, 1976.
Owsiak, A. The Steps to War: Theory and Evidence. In: Thompson, W. Encyclopedia of Empirical International Relations Theory. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2017.
Owsiak, A.; Rider, T. Clearing the Hurdle: Border Settlement and Rivalry Termination. Journal of Politics, v. 75, n. 3, p. 757 ”“ 772, 2013.
Owsiak, A.; Mitchell, S. Conflict Management in Land, River, and Maritime Claims. Political Science Research and Methods, v. 7, n. 1, p. 43-61, 2017.
Paré, G.; Trudel, M.-C.; Kitsiou, S. Synthesizing information systems knowledge: a typology of literature reviews. Information & Management, v.52, n.2, p.183-199, 2015
Potter, W. Issue area and foreign policy analysis. International Organization, v. 34, n. 3, p. 405”“427, 1980.
Powell, R. War as a Commitment Problem. International Organization, v. 60, n. 1, 2006.
Pruitt, D.; Rubin, J. Social Conflict: Escalation, Stalemate and Settlement. New York: Random House, 1986.
Randle, R. Issues in the History of International Relations: The Role of Issues in the Evolution of the State System. New York: Praeger, 1987.
Rasler, K.; Thompson, W. Contested Territory, Strategic Rivalries, and Conflict Escalation. International Studies Quarterly, v. 50, p. 145”“167, 2006.
Rasler, K.; Thompson, W. Ganguly, S. How Rivalries End. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2013.
Rider, T. Understanding Arms Race Onset: Rivalry, Threat, and Territorial Competition. The Journal of Politics, v. 71, n. 2, p. 693-703, 2009.
Rider, T.; Findley, M.; Diehl, P. Just part of the game? Arms races, rivalry and war. Journal of Peace Research, v. 48, n. 1, p. 85-100, 2011.
Rider, T.; Owsiak, A. Border settlement, commitment problems, and the causes of contiguous rivalry. Journal of Peace Research, v. 52, n. 4, p. 508-521, 2015.
Rosenau, J. Pre-Theories and Theories of Foreign Policy. In: Rosenau, J. The Scientific Study of Foreign Policy. New York: Free Press, 1971.
Sample, S. Arms races and dispute escalation: resolving the debate. Journal of Peace Research, v. 34, n. 1, p. 7-22, 1997.
Sample, S. From territorial claim to war: timing, causation, and the Steps-to-War. International Interactions, v. 40, p. 270-285, 2014.
Sample, S. Anticipating War? War preparations and the Steps-to-War thesis. British Journal of Political Science, v. 48, n. 2, p. 489-511, 2016.
Senese, P.; Vasquez, J. A Unified Explanation of Territorial Conflict: Testing the Impact of Sampling Bias, 1919-1992. International Studies Quarterly, v. 47, n. 2, p. 275-298, 2003.
Senese, P.; Vasquez, J. The steps to war: an empirical study. New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 2008.
Starr, H. Territory, Proximity, and Spatiality: the geography of international conflict. International Studies Review, v. 7, n. 3, p. 387-406, 2005.
Thompson, W. Identifying Rivals and Rivalries in World Politics. International Studies Quarterly, v. 45, p. 557-586, 2001.
Tir, J. Territorial Diversion: Diversionary Theory of War and Territorial Conflict. The Journal of Politics, v. 72, n. 2, p. 413-425 , 2010.
Toft, M. Issue Indivisibility and Time Horizons as Rationalist Explanations for War. Security Studies, v. 15, n. 1, p. 34-69, 2006.
Valeriano, B. Becoming Rivals: the process of interstate rivalry development. New York: Routledge , 2013.
Vasquez, J. The War Puzzle. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993.
Vasquez, J. Why Do Neighbors Fight? Proximity, Interaction, or Territoriality. Journal of Peace Research, v. 32, n. 3, p. 277-293, 1995.
Vasquez, J.; Henehan, M. Territorial Disputes and the Probability of War, 1816-1992. Journal of Peace Research, v. 38, n. 2, p. 123-138, 2001.
Walter, B. Explaining the Intractability of Territorial Conflict. International Studies Review , v. 5, n. 4, p. 137-153 , 2003.
Wiegand, K. Enduring Territorial Disputes: Strategies of Bargaining, Coercive Diplomacy, and Settlement. Athens: University of Georgia, 2011.
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Published
2021-04-20
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Diniz Rocha, Pedro. 2021. “Steps-to-War: An Overview of Its Research Program”. Meridiano 47 - Journal of Global Studies 22 (April). https://doi.org/10.20889/M47e22004.
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