TY - JOUR AU - Belo, Jean Lucas dos Passos AU - Queiroz, Paulo Ivo Braga de AU - Alves, Cláudio Jorge Pinto AU - Silva, Evandro José da AU - CAETANO, Mauro PY - 2020/12/31 Y2 - 2024/03/28 TI - Reliability-based optimization planning of aerodromes runway orientation for crosswind JF - Revista Interdisciplinar de Pesquisa em Engenharia JA - Rev. Interd. Pesq. Eng. VL - 6 IS - 2 SE - Artigos DO - UR - https://periodicos.unb.br/index.php/ripe/article/view/30502 SP - 73-80 AB - <p><span class="fontstyle0">The Wind Rose is the conventional method applied to define the best runway orientation, which is based<br />on a frequentist analysis of probability and on a significant data amount. The method presents questionable<br />precision about results. Hence, this paper aims to provide an alternative method based on the axiomatic definition of<br />probability, which uses the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) in order to achieve the reliability indexes<br />associated to the able runway orientations. The proposed method was developed in ForTran language and applied to<br />a case study in order to its evaluation and exemplification. Results showed that the best orientation was similar for<br />both conventional and proposed method, however, the calculated probabilities were significantly different. Finally,<br />this study contributes to the advancement of this probabilistic approach for cases that data cannot be exclusively<br />described by a bivariate normal distribution and when relevant correlations occur between variables.</span> </p> ER -